Tariffs or No Tariffs? Quick Survey
Answers marked with a * are required.
1.
What is your base case for the following tariff outcomes for GLOBAL TARIFFS by the end of February?
*
No global tariffs announced January or February
10% targeted global tariff (specific industries only)
10% across the board global tariff by the end of February
2.
What is your base case for the following tariff outcomes for TARIFFS ON CANADA by the end of February?
*
More threats and tweets, but no firm tariffs on Canada in JAN or FEB
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
5% to 20% across the board tariff announced with the threat it will increase over time
25% across the board tariff announced right away
3.
What is your base case for the following tariff outcomes for INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINA by the end of February?
*
More threats and tweets, but no new tariffs on China in JAN or FEB
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
1% to 10% across the board tariff increase announced with the threat it will increase over time
>10% across the board tariff increase announced right away
4.
What is your base case for the following tariff outcomes for TARIFFS ON MEXICO by the end of February?
*
More threats and tweets, but no firm tariffs on Mexico in JAN or FEB
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
5% to 20% across the board tariff announced with the threat it will increase over time
25% across the board tariff announced right away
5.
What is your base case for the following tariff outcomes for TARIFFS ON EUROPE by the end of February?
*
More threats and tweets, but no firm tariffs on Europe in JAN or FEB
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
5% to 20% across the board tariff announced with the threat it will increase over time
25% across the board tariff announced right away
6.
What % move do you expect over 48 hours in USDCAD if it's clear we are getting one of the following outcomes? (please indicate + or -)
*
Tariffs are clearly delayed or not happening in January or February
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
5% to 20% across the board tariff announced with the threat it will increase over time
25% across the board tariff announced right away
7.
What % move do you expect over 48 hours in USDCNH if it's clear we are getting one of the following outcomes? (please indicate + or -)
Tariffs are clearly delayed or not happening in January or February
Specific but delayed tariff announced with conditions to be met by a certain date
Targeted tariffs announced right away (specific sectors only)
5% to 20% across the board tariff announced with the threat it will increase over time
25% across the board tariff announced right away
8.
Are you going to be long USD, short USD, or flat USD into next week's inauguration and potential announcements?
Long USD
Short USD
Flat USD